Main
Featherweight
Max Holloway vs Jeremy Stephens
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Max Holloway
Jeremy Stephens
87%
13%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
24
Age
Δ 6y
30
28-9
Career record
Δ 19 pp
30-23
W7
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Holloway: 57 sig / 1 TD ·
Stephens: 47 sig / 0 TD
Max Holloway
Jeremy Stephens
72
Sig strikes landed
54
156
Sig strikes attempted
133
89
Total strikes landed
57
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.1
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
60s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
30-23
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—