Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jacare Souza
Yoel Romero
77%
23%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
36
Age
Δ 3y
39
27-10
Career record
Δ 1 pp
14-5
W5
Current streak
W6
5
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Souza: 30 sig / 1 TD ·
Romero: 46 sig / 0 TD
Jacare Souza
Yoel Romero
26
Sig strikes landed
22
49
Sig strikes attempted
45
42
Total strikes landed
34
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.6
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
155s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Jacare Souza
27-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
W6
Yoel Romero
"Soldier of God"
14-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—