Prelims2
Lightweight
Joe Proctor vs Magomed Mustafaev
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Joe Proctor
Magomed Mustafaev
44%
56%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
12-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
15-4
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Proctor: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Mustafaev: 18 sig / 0 TD
Joe Proctor
Magomed Mustafaev
24
Sig strikes landed
32
64
Sig strikes attempted
78
33
Total strikes landed
50
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.7
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
51s
Control time
179s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joe Proctor
12-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W1
Magomed Mustafaev
"The Sniper"
15-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—