Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Leonardo Santos
Kevin Lee
37%
63%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
36
Age
Δ 12y
23
19-7-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
19-8
W2
Current streak
W4
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Santos: 32 sig / 1 TD ·
Lee: 10 sig / 0 TD
Leonardo Santos
Kevin Lee
30
Sig strikes landed
39
80
Sig strikes attempted
95
44
Total strikes landed
49
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.2
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
130s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Leonardo Santos
19-7-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 3-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
Blue corner
W4
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—