Prelims2
Lightweight
John Makdessi vs Yancy Medeiros
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
John Makdessi
Yancy Medeiros
53%
47%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 8"
76"
31
Age
Δ 2y
28
18-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
15-9
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Makdessi: 114 sig / 0 TD ·
Medeiros: 80 sig / 0 TD
John Makdessi
Yancy Medeiros
49
Sig strikes landed
39
90
Sig strikes attempted
96
57
Total strikes landed
44
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
0.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
40s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
John Makdessi
"The Bull"
18-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1
Yancy Medeiros
15-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
L
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
L
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—