Prelims1
Welterweight
Warlley Alves vs Colby Covington
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Warlley Alves
Colby Covington
48%
52%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
25
Age
Δ 3y
28
16-8
Career record
Δ 12 pp
18-5
W3
Current streak
W3
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Alves: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Covington: 2 sig / 1 TD
Warlley Alves
Colby Covington
21
Sig strikes landed
21
48
Sig strikes attempted
50
37
Total strikes landed
40
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.6
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
97s
Control time
193s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
42%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Warlley Alves
16-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
Blue corner
W3
Colby Covington
"Chaos"
18-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le
—