Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Tecia Pennington vs Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tecia Pennington
Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger
71%
29%
Why
60"
Reach
Δ 4"
64"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pennington: 77 sig / 0 TD ·
Jones-Lybarger: 29 sig / 0 TD
Tecia Pennington
Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger
50
Sig strikes landed
50
114
Sig strikes attempted
110
91
Total strikes landed
67
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
-0.10
281s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Tecia Pennington
"Tiny Tornado"
16-8
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
Blue corner
Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30