🏆 Title fight
Main
Middleweight
Chris Weidman vs Luke Rockhold
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Chris Weidman
Luke Rockhold
60%
40%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
32
Age
Δ 0y
31
17-8
Career record
Δ 6 pp
17-6
W8
Current streak
W4
9
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 4
Weidman: 48 sig / 3 TD ·
Rockhold: 126 sig / 2 TD
Chris Weidman
Luke Rockhold
35
Sig strikes landed
34
69
Sig strikes attempted
76
38
Total strikes landed
39
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
149s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Chris Weidman
"The All-American"
17-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 9-0
Last 5
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
Blue corner
W4
Luke Rockhold
17-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—