🏆 Title fight
Main
Featherweight
Jose Aldo vs Conor McGregor
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Conor McGregor
70%
30%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
29
Age
Δ 2y
27
33-10
Career record
Δ 3 pp
23-6
W7
Current streak
W6
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Aldo: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
McGregor: 5 sig / 0 TD
Jose Aldo
Conor McGregor
55
Sig strikes landed
55
137
Sig strikes attempted
139
77
Total strikes landed
62
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
129s
Control time
31s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Jose Aldo
33-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
Blue corner
W6
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
23-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—