Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Richie Vaculik
Danny Martinez
38%
62%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
10-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
21-9
L1
Current streak
L3
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Vaculik: 63 sig / 3 TD ·
Martinez: 54 sig / 9 TD
Richie Vaculik
Danny Martinez
43
Sig strikes landed
44
96
Sig strikes attempted
110
60
Total strikes landed
74
1.0
Takedowns landed
2.0
3.8
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
79s
Control time
255s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Richie Vaculik
"Vas"
10-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
Blue corner
L3
Danny Martinez
"The Gremlin"
21-9
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—