Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Daniel Kelly
Steve Montgomery
57%
43%
Why
38
Age
Δ 13y
25
13-5
Career record
Δ 12 pp
9-6
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kelly: 63 sig / 5 TD ·
Montgomery: 77 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Kelly
Steve Montgomery
40
Sig strikes landed
22
91
Sig strikes attempted
84
63
Total strikes landed
30
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
165s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Daniel Kelly
13-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
Blue corner
L1
Steve Montgomery
"The Creepy Weasel"
9-6
Career record
Height
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—