Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Kyle Noke
Peter Sobotta
54%
46%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
36
Age
Δ 7y
29
23-10-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-7-1
W1
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Noke: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Sobotta: 2 sig / 0 TD
Kyle Noke
Peter Sobotta
32
Sig strikes landed
27
59
Sig strikes attempted
72
45
Total strikes landed
52
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.6
0.5
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
73s
Control time
238s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Kyle Noke
23-10-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
L
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
Blue corner
W2
Peter Sobotta
18-7-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
L
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—