Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Matthews
Akbarh Arreola
82%
18%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
21
Age
Δ 12y
33
23-9
Career record
Δ 8 pp
23-12-1
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Matthews: 62 sig / 1 TD ·
Arreola: 21 sig / 0 TD
Jake Matthews
Akbarh Arreola
39
Sig strikes landed
24
73
Sig strikes attempted
52
61
Total strikes landed
36
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.2
4.1
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
228s
Control time
41s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
23-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
Blue corner
L1
Akbarh Arreola
"El Caballero"
23-12-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—