Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stefan Struve
Jared Rosholt
80%
20%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 9"
76"
28
Age
Δ 2y
29
34-13
Career record
Δ 7 pp
15-4
W1
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Struve: 33 sig / 1 TD ·
Rosholt: 16 sig / 4 TD
Stefan Struve
Jared Rosholt
23
Sig strikes landed
21
49
Sig strikes attempted
42
36
Total strikes landed
39
-0.1
Takedowns landed
3.6
-0.5
Takedowns attempted
6.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
23s
Control time
328s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Stefan Struve
"Skyscraper"
34-13
Career record
Height
83"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
Blue corner
W2
Jared Rosholt
15-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—