Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brandon Lowe
Rashard Lovelace
75%
25%
Why
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Brandon Lowe
Rashard Lovelace
35
Sig strikes landed
39
80
Sig strikes attempted
86
38
Total strikes landed
54
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
122s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Brandon Lowe
0-0
Career record
Blue corner
W1
Rashard Lovelace
5-1
Career record
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 138: Unfinished Busine…
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