Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Fazlo Mulabitinovic
Scott Ettling
78%
22%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Mulabitinovic: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Ettling: 0 sig / 1 TD
Fazlo Mulabitinovic
Scott Ettling
39
Sig strikes landed
39
86
Sig strikes attempted
86
57
Total strikes landed
57
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
164s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Fazlo Mulabitinovic
0-0
Career record
Blue corner
Scott Ettling
0-0
Career record