Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Justin Lawrence
Emmanuel Sanchez
69%
31%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
26
Age
Δ 0y
25
11-4
Career record
Δ 11 pp
16-3
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Lawrence: 45 sig / 0 TD ·
Sanchez: 47 sig / 0 TD
Justin Lawrence
Emmanuel Sanchez
50
Sig strikes landed
66
141
Sig strikes attempted
170
64
Total strikes landed
61
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.1
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
57s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
2%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Justin Lawrence
"The American Kidd"
11-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 138: Unfinished Busine…
—
Blue corner
W1
Emmanuel Sanchez
"El Matador"
16-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
Bellator 143: Warren vs. Davis
—
L
Bellator 139: Kongo vs. Volkov
—
W
Bellator 135: Warren vs. Galvao
—