Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Adam Meredith
Jordan Dowdy
80%
20%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Meredith: 5 sig / 1 TD ·
Dowdy: 4 sig / 0 TD
Adam Meredith
Jordan Dowdy
42
Sig strikes landed
41
101
Sig strikes attempted
97
58
Total strikes landed
53
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
140s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Adam Meredith
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Blue corner
Jordan Dowdy
0-0
Career record