Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Steve Mann
Kyle Kurtz
73%
27%
Why
12-6
Career record
Δ 5 pp
8-5
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Mann: 6 sig / 1 TD ·
Kurtz: 5 sig / 1 TD
Steve Mann
Kyle Kurtz
30
Sig strikes landed
33
75
Sig strikes attempted
89
36
Total strikes landed
52
0.5
Takedowns landed
4.3
0.8
Takedowns attempted
7.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.60
335s
Control time
211s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Steve Mann
12-6
Career record
Height
73"
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Bellator 138: Unfinished Busine…
—
Blue corner
W1
Kyle Kurtz
8-5
Career record
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 138: Unfinished Busine…
—