Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kain Royer
Clay Mitchell
88%
12%
Why
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Royer: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Mitchell: 6 sig / 0 TD
Kain Royer
Clay Mitchell
38
Sig strikes landed
41
98
Sig strikes attempted
97
57
Total strikes landed
54
3.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
176s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kain Royer
2-3
Career record
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Bellator 138: Unfinished Busine…
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Blue corner
Clay Mitchell
0-0
Career record
Height
74"