Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Garrett Gross
Jeff Crotty
84%
16%
Why
L1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gross: 50 sig / 0 TD ·
Crotty: 14 sig / 5 TD
Garrett Gross
Jeff Crotty
38
Sig strikes landed
51
89
Sig strikes attempted
79
47
Total strikes landed
68
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
136s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Garrett Gross
11-8
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Bellator 138: Unfinished Busine…
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Blue corner
Jeff Crotty
0-0
Career record