Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Adam Cella
Chel Erwin-Davis
66%
34%
Why
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Cella: 12 sig / 2 TD ·
Erwin-Davis: 43 sig / 3 TD
Adam Cella
Chel Erwin-Davis
38
Sig strikes landed
59
95
Sig strikes attempted
102
44
Total strikes landed
64
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
53s
Control time
189s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Adam Cella
"El Naturel"
6-9
Career record
Height
74"
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Bellator 138: Unfinished Busine…
—
Blue corner
Chel Erwin-Davis
"The First Sun"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"