Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bobby Lashley
James Thompson
75%
25%
Why
39
Age
Δ 2y
37
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lashley: 12 sig / 1 TD ·
Thompson: 0 sig / 0 TD
Bobby Lashley
James Thompson
32
Sig strikes landed
22
54
Sig strikes attempted
57
39
Total strikes landed
34
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
369s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Bobby Lashley
16-2
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 138: Unfinished Busine…
—
Blue corner
James Thompson
"The Colossus"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37