Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Chandler
Dave Rickels
74%
26%
Why
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
24-10
Career record
Δ 11 pp
18-4
W1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Chandler: 56 sig / 3 TD ·
Rickels: 23 sig / 0 TD
Michael Chandler
Dave Rickels
41
Sig strikes landed
53
100
Sig strikes attempted
119
53
Total strikes landed
75
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.1
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
84s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Michael Chandler
"Iron"
24-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
Bellator 138: Unfinished Busine…
—
L
Bellator 131: Tito vs Bonnar
—
Blue corner
Dave Rickels
"The Caveman"
18-4
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-0