Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Will Brooks
Marcin Held
49%
51%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
29
Age
Δ 5y
24
19-4
Career record
Δ 5 pp
24-7
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Brooks: 61 sig / 3 TD ·
Held: 3 sig / 1 TD
Will Brooks
Marcin Held
55
Sig strikes landed
51
136
Sig strikes attempted
115
84
Total strikes landed
60
1.5
Takedowns landed
2.0
1.2
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.60
Knockdowns
0.40
101s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Will Brooks
"Ill"
19-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Bellator 136: Brooks vs. Jansen
—
W
Bellator 131: Tito vs Bonnar
—
Blue corner
W1
Marcin Held
24-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 136: Brooks vs. Jansen
—