Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nik Lentz
Danny Castillo
84%
16%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
31
Age
Δ 5y
36
30-13-2
Career record
Δ 6 pp
17-11
L1
Current streak
L3
14
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Lentz: 59 sig / 3 TD ·
Castillo: 57 sig / 2 TD
Nik Lentz
Danny Castillo
47
Sig strikes landed
32
93
Sig strikes attempted
70
76
Total strikes landed
53
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.6
4.7
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
187s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
30-13-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
14 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
Blue corner
L3
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
17-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
L
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
L
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—