Back to UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2
Main Heavyweight

Junior Dos Santos vs Alistair Overeem

UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 ·Amway Center
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Junior Dos Santos
Alistair Overeem
27% 73%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 3"
80"
32
Age
Δ 4y
36
22-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
48-19
W1
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
7

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Dos Santos: 22 sig / 0 TD · Overeem: 32 sig / 0 TD
Junior Dos Santos
Alistair Overeem
57
Sig strikes landed
46
104
Sig strikes attempted
91
64
Total strikes landed
54
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.8
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
47s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
66%
Submission
4%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Junior Dos Santos

"Cigano"
22-9
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
L UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
W UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
L UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
Blue corner
W2

Alistair Overeem

"The Demolition Man"
48-19 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
L UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
L UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—