🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Donald Cerrone
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2
·Amway Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Rafael Dos Anjos
Donald Cerrone
54%
46%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
33-17
Career record
Δ 3 pp
37-17
W4
Current streak
W8
15
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dos Anjos: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Cerrone: 4 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Dos Anjos
Donald Cerrone
49
Sig strikes landed
57
109
Sig strikes attempted
127
61
Total strikes landed
69
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.1
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
187s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Rafael Dos Anjos
33-17
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
15 fights · 12-3
Last 5
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
Blue corner
W8
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
18 fights · 15-3
Last 5
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—