Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Michael Johnson
Nate Diaz
53%
47%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
25-21
Career record
Δ 7 pp
22-14
L1
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Johnson: 103 sig / 1 TD ·
Diaz: 153 sig / 0 TD
Michael Johnson
Nate Diaz
69
Sig strikes landed
71
161
Sig strikes attempted
163
68
Total strikes landed
87
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
72s
Control time
39s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
25-21
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
Blue corner
L1
Nate Diaz
22-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—