Back to UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3
Prelims1 Featherweight

Edimilson Souza vs Chas Skelly

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Edimilson Souza
Chas Skelly
41% 59%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
16-5
Career record
Δ 11 pp
20-3
W3
Current streak
W3
3
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Souza: 19 sig / 0 TD · Skelly: 7 sig / 2 TD
Edimilson Souza
Chas Skelly
26
Sig strikes landed
32
66
Sig strikes attempted
72
38
Total strikes landed
42
0.0
Takedowns landed
2.0
0.1
Takedowns attempted
6.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
15s
Control time
206s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
30%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Edimilson Souza

"Kevin"
16-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
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W UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
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W UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
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Blue corner
W3

Chas Skelly

"The Scrapper"
20-3 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
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W UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
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W UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
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L UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—