Prelims1
Featherweight
Clay Guida vs Thiago Tavares
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Clay Guida
Thiago Tavares
57%
43%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
39-22
Career record
Δ 6 pp
21-8-1
W1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Guida: 3 sig / 1 TD ·
Tavares: 2 sig / 0 TD
Clay Guida
Thiago Tavares
25
Sig strikes landed
26
70
Sig strikes attempted
63
48
Total strikes landed
43
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
4.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
174s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
37%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
39-22
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
Blue corner
L1
Thiago Tavares
21-8-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—