Prelims1
Lightweight
Yan Cabral vs Johnny Case
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yan Cabral
Johnny Case
33%
67%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
32
Age
Δ 6y
26
14-3
Career record
Δ 3 pp
23-6
W1
Current streak
W3
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cabral: 31 sig / 3 TD ·
Case: 74 sig / 0 TD
Yan Cabral
Johnny Case
22
Sig strikes landed
27
62
Sig strikes attempted
70
42
Total strikes landed
55
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.5
4.9
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
224s
Control time
187s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Yan Cabral
14-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
Blue corner
W3
Johnny Case
"Hollywood"
23-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—