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Prelims2 Bantamweight

Pedro Munhoz vs Jimmie Rivera

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Pedro Munhoz
Jimmie Rivera
27% 73%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
20-10
Career record
Δ 16 pp
24-5
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Munhoz: 66 sig / 0 TD · Rivera: 96 sig / 0 TD
Pedro Munhoz
Jimmie Rivera
23
Sig strikes landed
38
77
Sig strikes attempted
85
30
Total strikes landed
46
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
30s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Pedro Munhoz

"The Young Punisher"
20-10 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 3 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
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L UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
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Blue corner
W1

Jimmie Rivera

"El Terror"
24-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
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