Back to UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3
Prelims2 Bantamweight

Bruno Korea vs Matheus Nicolau

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Bruno Korea
Matheus Nicolau
55% 45%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 0"
66"
24
Age
Δ 2y
23

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Korea: 27 sig / 0 TD · Nicolau: 46 sig / 3 TD
Bruno Korea
Matheus Nicolau
42
Sig strikes landed
46
96
Sig strikes attempted
106
54
Total strikes landed
63
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
92s
Control time
167s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Bruno Korea

0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Age
24
Blue corner

Matheus Nicolau

0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23