Main
Bantamweight
Thomas Almeida vs Anthony Birchak
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thomas Almeida
Anthony Birchak
84%
16%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
24
Age
Δ 5y
30
23-5
Career record
Δ 14 pp
17-8
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Almeida: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Birchak: 27 sig / 0 TD
Thomas Almeida
Anthony Birchak
40
Sig strikes landed
29
82
Sig strikes attempted
89
55
Total strikes landed
31
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.60
Knockdowns
0.00
47s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
71%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Thomas Almeida
"Thominhas"
23-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
Blue corner
W1
Anthony Birchak
"El Toro"
17-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—