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Gleison Tibau vs Abel Trujillo

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Gleison Tibau
Abel Trujillo
78% 22%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
32
Age
32
33-15
Career record
Δ 6 pp
15-9
L1
Current streak
L1
15
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
DQ · Round 1
Tibau: 3 sig / 2 TD · Trujillo: 0 sig / 0 TD
Gleison Tibau
Abel Trujillo
35
Sig strikes landed
30
84
Sig strikes attempted
82
56
Total strikes landed
43
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
140s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Gleison Tibau

33-15
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
L UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
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W UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
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W UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
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W UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
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L UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
Blue corner
L1

Abel Trujillo

"Killa"
15-9 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
L UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—