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Gilbert Burns vs Rashid Magomedov

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Gilbert Burns
Rashid Magomedov
45% 55%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
23-10
Career record
Δ 22 pp
21-2
W3
Current streak
W3
3
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Burns: 28 sig / 2 TD · Magomedov: 80 sig / 2 TD
Gilbert Burns
Rashid Magomedov
36
Sig strikes landed
48
109
Sig strikes attempted
94
46
Total strikes landed
59
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
6.9
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
143s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Gilbert Burns

"Durinho"
23-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
W UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
W UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
Blue corner
W3

Rashid Magomedov

"Highlander"
21-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
W UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
W UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2