Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kevin Haley
Mike Zichelle
75%
25%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Haley: 13 sig / 3 TD ·
Zichelle: 13 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Haley
Mike Zichelle
43
Sig strikes landed
44
101
Sig strikes attempted
102
58
Total strikes landed
58
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
126s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kevin Haley
"The North Woods Nightmare"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Blue corner
Mike Zichelle
0-0
Career record