Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Bessette
Kevin Roddy
93%
7%
Why
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Bessette: 9 sig / 1 TD ·
Roddy: 10 sig / 0 TD
Matt Bessette
Kevin Roddy
70
Sig strikes landed
46
143
Sig strikes attempted
123
88
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.3
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.60
Knockdowns
0.00
108s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Matt Bessette
"The Mangler"
23-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 134: The British Invas…
—
Blue corner
Kevin Roddy
"K-Rod"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"