Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Secor
Jeremie Holloway
79%
21%
Why
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Secor: 5 sig / 2 TD ·
Holloway: 8 sig / 0 TD
Matt Secor
Jeremie Holloway
46
Sig strikes landed
45
106
Sig strikes attempted
105
59
Total strikes landed
59
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
149s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Matt Secor
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Age
29
Blue corner
Jeremie Holloway
"Hit Em"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Age
31