Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ilya Kotau
Kemran Lachinov
75%
25%
Why
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Ilya Kotau
Kemran Lachinov
29
Sig strikes landed
33
73
Sig strikes attempted
70
51
Total strikes landed
29
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.5
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.50
80s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ilya Kotau
2-2
Career record
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 140: Lima vs. Koreshkov
—
Blue corner
Kemran Lachinov
0-0
Career record