Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sam Watford
TJ Hepburn
75%
25%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Watford: 2 sig / 2 TD ·
Hepburn: 11 sig / 2 TD
Sam Watford
TJ Hepburn
39
Sig strikes landed
39
95
Sig strikes attempted
95
51
Total strikes landed
53
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
140s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Sam Watford
0-0
Career record
Blue corner
TJ Hepburn
"The Carnivore"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"