Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Keenan Raymond
Damien Trites
76%
24%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Keenan Raymond
Damien Trites
42
Sig strikes landed
38
91
Sig strikes attempted
93
55
Total strikes landed
53
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
164s
Control time
160s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Keenan Raymond
0-0
Career record
Blue corner
Damien Trites
"The Omen"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Age
36