Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kin Moy
Walter Smith-Cotito
87%
13%
Why
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Moy: 49 sig / 3 TD ·
Smith-Cotito: 41 sig / 2 TD
Kin Moy
Walter Smith-Cotito
34
Sig strikes landed
35
74
Sig strikes attempted
63
49
Total strikes landed
32
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
123s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Kin Moy
"Kong"
9-3
Career record
Height
65"
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 140: Lima vs. Koreshkov
—
Blue corner
Walter Smith-Cotito
0-0
Career record
Height
68"