Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Page
Charlie Ontiveros
90%
10%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
28
Age
Δ 4y
24
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Page: 14 sig / 1 TD ·
Ontiveros: 0 sig / 0 TD
Michael Page
Charlie Ontiveros
34
Sig strikes landed
15
71
Sig strikes attempted
34
50
Total strikes landed
27
2.7
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.2
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.50
490s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Michael Page
"Venom"
26-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 140: Lima vs. Koreshkov
—
Blue corner
Charlie Ontiveros
"American Bad Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
24