Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Goiti Yamauchi
Isao Kobayashi
84%
16%
Why
23
Age
Δ 4y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Yamauchi: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Kobayashi: 14 sig / 2 TD
Goiti Yamauchi
Isao Kobayashi
49
Sig strikes landed
45
104
Sig strikes attempted
96
70
Total strikes landed
64
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
149s
Control time
168s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Goiti Yamauchi
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Age
23
Blue corner
Isao Kobayashi
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Age
27