Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brennan Ward
Dennis Olson
89%
11%
Why
15-5
Career record
Δ 21 pp
14-12
W2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ward: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Olson: 3 sig / 0 TD
Brennan Ward
Dennis Olson
33
Sig strikes landed
16
77
Sig strikes attempted
73
52
Total strikes landed
13
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
112s
Control time
37s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Brennan Ward
"The Irish Bad Boy"
15-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Bellator 140: Lima vs. Koreshkov
—
W
Bellator 134: The British Invas…
—
Blue corner
L1
Dennis Olson
14-12
Career record
Height
72"
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Bellator 140: Lima vs. Koreshkov
—