Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brandon Halsey
Rafael Carvalho
70%
30%
Why
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
10-3
Career record
Δ 17 pp
15-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Halsey: 3 sig / 3 TD ·
Carvalho: 5 sig / 0 TD
Brandon Halsey
Rafael Carvalho
34
Sig strikes landed
41
100
Sig strikes attempted
108
41
Total strikes landed
46
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
52s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brandon Halsey
"Bull"
10-3
Career record
Height
72"
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 137: Halsey vs. Grove
—
Blue corner
W1
Rafael Carvalho
15-1
Career record
Height
75"
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 136: Brooks vs. Jansen
—