Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Steve Garcia
Eduardo Bustillos
94%
6%
Why
23
Age
Δ 5y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Garcia: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
Bustillos: 13 sig / 0 TD
Steve Garcia
Eduardo Bustillos
53
Sig strikes landed
40
104
Sig strikes attempted
87
73
Total strikes landed
54
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
185s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Steve Garcia
"Mean Machine"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
Blue corner
Eduardo Bustillos
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Age
28