Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Darrion Caldwell
Shawn Bunch
89%
11%
Why
28
Age
Δ 5y
32
11-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
8-3
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Caldwell: 4 sig / 1 TD ·
Bunch: 0 sig / 0 TD
Darrion Caldwell
Shawn Bunch
36
Sig strikes landed
34
87
Sig strikes attempted
70
48
Total strikes landed
43
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.8
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
145s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Darrion Caldwell
"The Wolf"
11-1
Career record
Height
70"
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 137: Halsey vs. Grove
—
Blue corner
W1
Shawn Bunch
"Bunch the Great"
8-3
Career record
Height
65"
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 137: Halsey vs. Grove
—